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Thinkholes: How Predictability Undermines Competitive Advantage


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Think about the holes we dig ourselves into with the assumptions we make every day. In a rush to make timely decisions, meet inflexible deadlines, or conserve our limited time, we default to reliable decision-making patterns. The result is a failure to differentiate ourselves, our projects or our organizations. Our decisions follow a very calculated and very predictable course of action.

The implications are far more serious than you may think. Which animal has the better chance of survival, the one that always follows the same path, or the one whose route cannot be easily tracked?

In his book, “A Whole New Mind,” author Dan Pink explains:
The last few decades have belonged to a certain kind of person with a certain kind of mind – computer programmers who could crank code, lawyers who could craft contracts, MBAs who could crunch numbers. But the keys to the kingdom are changing hands. The future belongs to a very different kind of person with a very different kind of mind – creators and empathizers, pattern recognizers and meaning makers. These people – artists, inventors, designers, storytellers, caregivers, consolers, big picture thinkers – will now reap society’s richest rewards and share its greatest  joys.

His logic is straightforward. IF what you do has no creative value added, your function can be outsourced or simulated by predictive modeling software. You can be replaced. In short, if you aren’t innovating new alternatives or creating genuinely unique outcomes, your function can be achieved cheaper, faster – and probably more consistently.

If you follow the path of least resistance with your choices and decisions, your perspective has limited range. You miss opportunities to differentiate yourself and your brand. You commoditize your value as you think into a deeper hole.
The demands of efficiency encourage us to leap to conclusions. We are experts at what we do.
 
We know what works. So, we accept the first workable solution as THE solution. Check off the metric. Proceed to the next task.
If you’re crossing the street, automatic thinking patterns are very useful. You don’t think at a red light. But, dozens of other decision points slip past you every day – opportunities that could result in radically different outcomes. Differentiation creates the unexpected solution. But to achieve that, you have to recognize and climb out of your habitual thinkholes.

It stuns me that innovative problem solving is not part of every organization’s training. To envision and articulate different options for overcoming challenges is at the core of competitive advantage. People new to a position are usually filled with fresh ideas to initiate change. But, leadership is generally averse to risk, focusing on quarterly objectives and shareholder expectations. This pattern rewards short term, inside-the-box thinking. And, by default, it undermines the ability to create long term value.

While you are focusing on incremental improvement, your competitors exploit your predictable actions, redefine their own value propositions and challenge your whole business model.

Frans Johansson, in his book “The Medici Effect,” described how assumptions can limit potential. Organizations hire experts. Experts know the industry. They assume what is probable or not. The range is a few degrees in either direction. Johansson calls this directional thinking. It is calculated, controlled and predictable. In contrast, he introduces intersectional thinking. By intentionally crossing paths with experts from other fields, unexpected connections and unlikely combinations of knowledge and experience are created. The “impossible” becomes the breakthrough. Possibilities expand from a few degrees to a whole new plane with 360 degree potential.

Breakthroughs are disruptive. Until you create the blue ocean in which you have dominant market position, you will compete for shrinking margins and limited market share. “Blue Ocean Strategy,” by Kim and Mauborgne, described how to create uncontested market space that makes the competition irrelevant.

Innovation is not generally considered a risk reduction strategy. In reality, we actually increase risk by following the predictable path. Assumptions are safer than questions. But, they are short sighted. Creativity requires a broader range of reference points. It’s far easier, cheaper and wiser to alter your course if you can see the far horizon. If your decisions are not analyzed within a larger context, your assumptions will bury your options. You will flounder in shark infested waters.

If I know how you see your situation, I also know with some degree of certainty, what you believe your options to be. Your actions can be predicted from those options.

It’s neither possible nor practical to expel all assumptions. But, suspending their grip increases your possible alternatives and thwarts predictability. In a market where the competition is fierce and product or service offerings basically the same, customers respond to differentiation. It is easier to sell obvious benefits than to build marketing campaigns around incremental differences.

Whirlpool redefines laundry and customer preference

When the Duet washer and dryer were introduced in 2001, Whirlpool took the industry by surprise. One third of washer/dryer consumers had no brand preference when they entered a retail location. The appliance store was a sea of white. Everything looked and performed basically the same. Brands and models were essentially interchangeable. It was a commodity market focused on price.

Whirlpool’s leadership looked outside the organization to find thinkers who were not bound by the assumptions and could provide new tools for discovery, synthesis and realization. New opportunities surfaced when the focus on washer and dryer was reframed as the “fabric care process.”

Innovations included storage drawers on the bottom which raised the front loading doors to a comfortable height. Integrated cabinetry holds the iron, a built-in ironing board and a fabric steamer. Finally, they added a new palette of exciting colors. Reframing the focus created a new understanding of customer need and market opportunity.

Whirlpool’s journey to differentiate itself succeeded in creating new market space where they could charge $2000 for a matched set. Chuck Jones, Whirlpool’s VP of Global Consumer Design, claims the Duet changed the consumer’s perceived value of the laundry process.
By creating radically different form, features and functionality, a new paradigm was created which increased washer/dryer combined purchases from 15% to 96%.

Whirlpool took a risk, but a calculated one. Each new product developed requires a value prop and documentation of a compelling customer need. Further considerations explore the migration path or product line potential. One-offs or short range product lines generally do not justify the investment. If the initial thinking is true to the brand while diverging from industry assumptions, it has potential as a breakthrough.

Whirlpool demonstrates one large corporation’s approach to innovation. But, the same tactics are applicable to any organization: shift focus, challenge assumptions, explore beyond the obvious to create new market space.

To redefine the situation is to embrace a different way of thinking. Instead of seeing our options as black, white or a predictable shade of gray, we have to recognize that the reds, greens and blues are the options that create genuine competitive advantage through differentiation.

© 2008 Chas Martin, InnovativEye

Posted on Wednesday, February 13, 2008 by Registered CommenterChas Martin | Comments9 Comments

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Reader Comments (9)

This idea goes hand-in hand with Redmond's thesis. However, as one of the least creative and least "out of the box" thinkers ever, I can understand how difficult it may be for others to successfully adopt your suggested concepts. Some of it, I'm sure, can be learned through guided situational problem solving, which I imagine your "events" provide. From a business/organization point of view I think there must be a balance between innovation and what I call stability and you call predictability. Any organization, business or otherwise needs a balance of different types of thinkers in order to be successful. True there is a fine line between predictable and outright close-minded; a "this is the way we've always done it" attitude can be detrimental. I think it's important to find a balance in our approach to any decision making, problem-solving situation and to be cognizant of the fact that not everyone possesses the creativity to even be able to think of another way of doing things. The important thing is that they be open to listen and at times accept the ideas and position of those who are more creative.

Saturday, February 16, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterKathleen Baldino

Innovation takes many forms stretching far beyond sheer inventiveness. There's also cultural awareness. Take a look at the story about GE that starts on the business front of the Thursday Feb.14 edition of the NY Times. In describing GE's genuinely global sales strategy, veteran business reporter Claudia H. Deutsch writes:

"The company's once-rigid hierarchy and vaunted training programs are going through a huge overhaul, as American executives learn to treat foreign-born colleagues as equals, not subordinates."

Deutsch's story shows a side of the innovation process that's rarely addressed: a willingness to listen to other voices, an ability to perceive value in "foreign" attitudes, a desire to experience the unknown -- even if it means facing uncertainty and danger.

I'm not trying to suggest that GE CEO Jeff Immelt is a figure of heroic proportions, but he's beginning to remind me of Marco Polo. There's a quote from Immelt in the story that sums up the reality of the global market:

"...you don’t get to sell things for long unless you are part of the culture into which you are selling.”

Thinking along those lines results in the creation of competitive advantages that are hard to beat!

Saturday, February 16, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMike Barlow

Chas, as one who is personally and professionally invested in promoting long-term - i.e. SUSTAINABLE - thinking, I whole-heartedly agree with your comments. It's the same, old, short-term, 'business as usual' linear thought-process that has gotten us into the predicament that we face globally from climate change, peak oil and over-consumption. It is the cultural-creatives who will save us all, if we can only look up from our thinkholes and give them a chance!
Thanks for the metaphor!

Thursday, February 21, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterJill Sughrue

I wrote this as I discussed the previous post with Lea Redmond. Her thesis on "The Spell of the Sensuous" is, in a very odd way, directly connected to this article.
Thanks for your comments.

Thursday, February 21, 2008 | Registered CommenterChas Martin

In today's corporate climate of "immediate and tangible ROI," spending precious time cultivating cross-industry connections is scorned. Rarely do we come together to simply explore fresh ideas from folks with completely different backgrounds and expertise.

Moreover, management often rejects job candidates with broad talent and creative ideas that translate across various different dynamics. Execs seem to seek some uber-expert--someone with deep expertise in one particular area-- to help the company continue to do more of the same, only better. Good luck with that.

I am on a campaign to create opportunities for intellectual and creative cross pollination. I'll post a link on my blog (http://armchairmarketing.blogspot.com) once I have the new Facebook group off the ground. Stay tuned...

Friday, February 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterKelly Feller

Good article. I hope you get hired to teach lots more people how to think creatively---
After all these years of evolution, we still go down the path of least resistance.
Why is that? It seems people can not VISUALIZE what could be possible......
or this VISUALIZATION isn't yet internalized as part of our SURVIVAL!!!
WE are the result of our educational systems! And what the culture values--
results PRONTO! I am reading the book "Presence." I think it's a conversation of
corporate gurus who're penetrating some of the corporate lingo to unearth what
could be considered spiritual practices of BEING so that one can let go of the OLD
and then step into the NEW...There is a rhythm to this process -- I think it's the rhythm we need to relearn. INNOVATION demands a different rhythm -- that can be disturbing to people!!!! Authors also say how with 5 people, one can change the world -- Who is your tribe of 5 people? I ponder this.

Friday, February 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMaura Conlon-McIvor

A great article, that sums up the need for organisational agility to come from an inward capability of being future focused and creating the pathways of getting there through creative leaps. Reframing the proposition is definitley a interesting route as this opens up the ability to explore not only the "why is.." questions but permits the opportunity of more "what if.." scenarios. A major influence I found through my research for such leaps was based very much on the organisational will to change, to change to a more collaborative, open exchanged, creative mindset to solution finding and innovation activity..not just individual projects, teams or units but as the entire espirit de corps of the organisation.

Monday, February 25, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterBhav Chohan

I think it also has a lot to do with relying on 'best practices,' what has worked in the past and for other organizations. When we work with companies who are trying to differentiate, we start by telling them that they can't have a deadline for their new, brilliant strategy. It takes time to develop and more time to execute.
We focus on 'next practices.' We take a look at what everyone else is doing, and brainstorm in uncharted territory.
Flexibility is key, too!

Friday, May 9, 2008 | Unregistered Commenteroddpodz

thank you for the article - it is spot on!

one of our greatest challenges in helping our clients to generate new ideas is to overcome their tunnel vision - their inability to see past what they have grown to accept as being unalterable parts of the world.

however, i disagree with your statement "breakthroughs are disruptive" and your comments on "blue ocean strategy".

breakthrough innovations are new ways to to do old tasks; they are therefore sustaining, and not disruptive at all.

the tools contained in "blue ocean strategy" are quite tame in their ability to generate new business ideas, and thus do not live up to the "blue ocean" claim.
i would be very interested in a tool which can generate "blue ocean" business ideas!


best regards


graham

Monday, May 19, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterGraham Horton

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